Is Sami Niku Ready For The NHL?

WINNIPEG, Manitoba -- When the Winnipeg Jets sent Sami Niku to the Manitoba Moose on October 11th, the 23-year-old defenceman’s re-assignment seemed more like a pit-stop as opposed to anything permanent.

“Of course it’s never fun, but you just need to be good and like play well and do your best and then you might get called up again,” Niku said after that reassignment back to the AHL last month.

Moose head coach Pascal Vincent explained that Niku, who the Jets called up to play 17:01 minutes of ice-time against the Pittsburgh Penguins after he recorded two assists in his first three AHL games of the season, was still behind the 8-ball after an injury-riddled training camp. Niku suffered an undisclosed injury when he and teammate Kristian Vesalainen were involved in a car crash on the way to practice before also pulling his groin in the latter part of training camp.

“It’s just a matter of playing minutes,” Vincent insisted at the time.

Considering that the Jets said goodbye to Jacob Trouba, Tyler Myers and Ben Chiarot in the offseason, along with the fact that Dustin Byfugien went AWOL early into training camp, it seemed like Niku’s chance to grab a hold of an NHL spot was laid out on a silver platter. Niku, who as a 21-year-old rookie was voted as the AHL’s most outstanding defenceman for the 2017-2018 season, has proven to be a dominant player at the AHL level which inclined many to believe he wouldn't be around for long.

“He obviously wants to be in the NHL and he’s definitely good enough to be there,” Moose captain Peter Stoykewych said upon the puck moving defencemans arrival.

But just over a month since being sent to the minors, Niku remains with the Moose.

The fact that Niku, who has 11 points in 10 AHL games this season, is not a regular NHL player has become a story in itself. Having been such an offensive force in 106 career AHL games (0.73 points per game), not to mention that he’s a smooth skater and elite puck handler with a knack for producing on the man-advantage, has inclined many to believe that he’s ready for the big leagues. However, Jets head coach Paul Maurice told reporters Thursday that given how well Niku has played in the AHL, the team is not in a rush to recall him and they like how their team has performed (6-3-1 in their last 10 games) over the last little bit.

On the surface, Maurice’s comments are a head-scratcher considering how much of a game-changer Niku has been at the AHL level.

“We’ve won, recently, quite a few games and you have to look at Sami Niku and say he's a big reason we’re winning those games,” Vincent told reporters on November 11th.

While Niku was rehabbing his lower body injury during the first two weeks of this impending month (and a bit) long AHL stint —after he re-aggravated the injury on October 12th in his second game back—the Moose lost all five of their games through that span. Once Niku returned on November 2nd for the teams’ weekend series against the Grand Rapids team, the Moose flipped a switch. Niku’s arrival has helped propel the Moose to six wins in their last seven games, with the team scoring 4.42 goals per game and executing on 32% of their power plays— a stark contrast from the 1.40 GF/pg and mere 7% power play efficiency rating the team was averaging during Niku’s recent absence.

So, why would it serve the Jets better to keep Niku in the AHL?

"I think people forget that your game has to be really good at the level below to move to the level above and it sounds very simple and logical, but I think people miss that," one player agent told InsideAHLHockey.com. "With a prospect, you have to consider if he is the best possible player he can be at the AHL level, before he moves onto the [NHL]."

Whether you agree with the Jets’ methods of development or not, Sami Niku is really not as polished of a player as some would like to believe.

Yes, Niku is a game-changer at the AHL level, but being a dominant offensive defenceman in the minors doesn’t necessarily mean you’re ready for the big leagues. And because he’s such an electrifying player, Niku’s shortcomings, particularly in the defensive zone, have been overshadowed by impatient fans who are frustrated at the make-up of the Jets’ current blue-line.

The reality is, Niku has not made enough progress in the glaring weakness’ in his game to warrant another look, just yet.

“His game without the puck is what he needs to get really good at in order to get back to the NHL,” Vincent said after being asked what Niku needs to do to become a full-time NHL regular.

Those calling for Niku’s re-call are clearly quick to forget the 30 NHL games he played during the 2018-2019 season, where his shortcomings were on full display. While averaging 13:55 minutes of ice-time a night, Niku recorded a mere four points, a 45.5% Corsi rating and 1.35 shot attempts per game.

From what quick snippets of Moose highlights will show you, Niku’s got a terrific skillset. There’s no doubt about that. But to be a defenceman in the NHL— and line up against the worlds best night-in and night-out—you can’t be a liability in your own zone. If you’re not a strong defender in the AHL, the odds of you becoming one at the NHL level aren’t high.

“It’s the 1-on-1 battles that he needs to improve,” Vincent said, while noting that Niku is progressing, albeit somewhat, in that area of his game. “The other thing we told him that he needs to get better at is making sure that our goalie sees the puck when there’s an attack to the net.”

In the NHL, there’s very little margin for error. The game is structured, with less chaos than in the lower-tiers of the game. It’s not the type of place you can develop an enigma like Niku, especially for a playoff contending team like Winnipeg.

However, if Niku, who’s in the third year of his entry level contract, can improve on the little areas of his game there’s certainly a massive opportunity awaiting him in the big leagues.

The question becomes, though, will he be able to put it all together?

“It’s a day at a time with Sami,” Vincent concluded.