Phantoms/Bruins 2018 Atlantic Division Semifinals Series Preview
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PROVIDENCE - The Lehigh Valley Phantoms, along with 15 other teams, wiped their slates clean to 0-0 with the next goal being the first team to reach 15 wins. Beginning tonight in Game 1 of the Atlantic Division Semifinals (best-of-five) against the Providence Bruins, the top-seeded Phantoms will look to climb their way up toward the 2018 Calder Cup Championship.
After clinching first place in the Atlantic Division heading into the final weekend, the Phantoms were able to rest up some players and allow incoming rookie players on amateur tryouts get some valuable pro experience. One of those newcomers appears to be in the lineup for Lehigh Valley tonight. More on that in the series breakdown.
There's no easy opponents in the post-season, and that rings ever true in the Atlantic Division where the four playoff teams all rank in the top-7 in the league's overall standings.
Providence has the benefit of getting the first two games at home despite being the 4-seed in the 1vs4 matchup due to scheduling conflict with the arena in Providence, and will need to take that to their advantage before heading back to Lehigh Valley where the series will conclude with Game 3 and if necessary 4 and 5.
The Phantoms owned a 4-1-1 record against the Bruins in the regular season series, but the message from both coaching staffs are that neither team was at full strength in any of the six regular season meetings so a true guage between the two teams isn't accurate prior to the series.
Here's a full breakdown of the two teams at each position, who has the edge and a prediction for the series!
Forwards
Lehigh Valley
The AHL's regular season MVP Phil Varone (23 goals, 47 assists in 74 games) and AHL-sniper Greg Carey (team-high 31 goals) anchor a top line as one of the deadliest duos in the league. Linemate Alex Krushelnyski is a nice compliment on the right side of the trio, playing fast and physical but has shown before - like his breakaway goal in Toronto back in January - he has a set of hands he could use to make plays too.
The Martel-Vecchione-AubeKubel line has been reunited again in practice this week leading up to Friday's Game One, leading us to believe Scott Gordon is looking to rekindle some magic that trio had in the beginning of the year when their speed and intensity was unmatched and they were downright dominant. Speed, skill and fiesty on the wings.
With Radel Fazleev absent from practice Wednesday, Isaac Ratcliffe was on a 'third' line with Corban Knight and Chris Conner. A pair of reliable veteran players with a 19-year-old and hungry incoming rookie makes sense, but don't think this line can't score in bunches. Knight was the hottest player in the AHL in the winter when injuries/callups struck and Knight saw his role expanded. The speedy Conner is very smart and deceptive, and Ratcliffe brings size and energy to the table and perhaps playing with a bit more confidence since scoring his 1st career AHL goal last weekend in his pro debut.
Secondary scoring and being able to shut down the opposition's top scorers/playmakers is just as important as anything else come playoff time.
It looks like the true shutdown line to start the postseason will be that of Tyrell Goulbourne, Cole Bardreau and led by captain Colin McDOnald on the right side. The three play a similar style and have great chemistry playing together in large portions over the past few seasons.
Projected Game 1 Lineup
Greg Carey - Phil Varone - Alex Krushelnyski Danick Martel - Mike Vecchione - Nicolas Aube-Kubel Isaac Ratcliffe - Corban Knight - Chris Conner Tyrell Goulbourne - Cole Bardreau - Colin McDonald
Scratches: Steven Swavely, Mikhail Vorobyev (injured), Radel Fazleev, Carsen Twarynski and Pascal Laberge
Providence
The Skinny: Labeled as a more defensive-minded team, the Bruins have plenty of talented forward prospects littered up and down their lineup paired up with proven AHL scorers.
Austin Czarnik finished among the league's leaders in scoring despite only appearing in 64 games with Providence this season due to some time in the NHL with Boston. Rookies Ryan Fitzgerald (21-goal season), Zachary Senyshyn and Jacob-Forsbacka Karlsson highlight a young, but talented group of forwards looking to gain valuable AHL playoff experience and push for NHL jobs in the fall.
Projected Game 1 Lineup
Ryan Fitzgerald - Jordan Szwarz - Austin Czarnik Kenny Agostino - Jacob-Forsbacka Karlsson - Peter Cehlarik Anton Blidh - Colby Cave - Zachary Senyshyn 4th line TBD
Extras: Trent Frederic, Chris Porter, Justin Hickman, Adam Payerl, Joona Koppanen, Josh Hennessy, Jack Studnicka and Cameron Hughes
Edge: Phantoms That's as talented a top-9 as any in the AHL for Providence, but the Phantoms have proven they can get scoring from all four lines. If the Flyers don't send Oskar Lindblom back to Lehigh Valley before the end of the series, then this is probably also an 'even' category in this preview.
Defense
Lehigh Valley
The Phantoms' blue line appears to have taken a big step toward re-gaining some key pieces as both Sam Morin and Phil Myers were full participants in practice this week along with James de Haas who missed some time lately with an upper body injury.
Morin says he's ready and feeling good, and head coach Scott Gordon was encouraged in general with the progress injured players were making. It'll be interesting to see not only if/when they return, but at what level the play after returning - especially Morin who has been out of game action since January 20th.
Rookie Mark Friedman and second year pro Reece Willcox will both be 'X-factors' in this series on defense, as the intensity picks up in the postseason.
Projected Game 1 Lineup
T.J. Brennan - Mark Friedman Will O'Neill - Max Lamarche Sam Morin - Reece Willcox
Extras: Phil Myers, James de Haas and David Drake
Providence
Tommy Cross - Connor Clifton Chris Breen - Jakub Zboril Jeremy Lauzon - Paul Postma
Extras: Emil Johansson, Sena Acolatse
The Skinny: As far as their lineup goes, it seems they have been shuffling guys around and using these seven defenders with regularity. Paul Postma has been a nice late-season addition for Providence from Boston, captain Tommy Cross leads the way and several talented young blue liners including four rookies call the Bruins' blue line home.
Edge: Phantoms, when healthy/reloaded As currently constructed, you could make a strong argument that the Bruins play tighter defensively and have more depth because of the uncertainty of injuries and extended absences from game action on the other side. If Sam Morin and Phil Myers can return to game action and play at a high level, and the Flyers reassign Travis Sanheim prior to next weekend's games then the entire dynamic changes.
Goalies
Lehigh Valley
Alex Lyon, Dustin Tokarski, John Muse and Anthony Stolarz (injured)
When Alex Lyon played in the regular season finale for the Phantoms, it marked his first AHL start since early February due to extended time with the Philadelphia Flyers amidst their plethora of injuries at the goaltending position. In the meantime, Dustin Tokarski and John Muse both stepped right in seamlessly - going a combined 17-4-4 in net between Lyon's starts on February 9th and April 14th.
Anthony Stolarz's rehab process finally saw him back in action, first in the ECHL and then in one AHL game with the Phantoms while the team was on the road in Providence - the weekend the PPL Center hosted the NCAA's Midwest Regional tournament with winner Flyers prospect Tanner Laczynski and Ohio State advancing to the Frozen Four. The game didn't go well for Lehigh Valley across the board and Stolarz was victimized for six goals against in a 6-1 drubbing back on March 24th.
Since then, Stolarz was pulled from a start last-minute prior to a game in April - forcing the Phantoms to have to sign the visiting Felix Sandstrom to a one-night PTO to serve as essentially an emergency backup goaltender. There's a new injury preventing him from playing now, which is most peculiar after two surgeries on his meniscus.
Providence
Zane McIntyre, Jordan Binnington and Kyle Keyser
The Skinny: Just like the Phantoms, the Bruins have a difficult choice to make in net. McIntyre's seven shutouts were tops in the AHL this season, while Binnington's 2.05 goals-against average was second lowest in the league among qualified goaltenders with at least 1,440 minutes of game action accrued.
McIntyre is Boston Bruins' property, while Binnington was loaned to Providence by the St. Louis Blues as they're in the middle of an organizational change at the AHL level, now sharing AHL Chicago with the Vegas Golden Knights organization who is the primary affiliate before taking over the San Antonio Rampage next season to house their prospects there in a single-team affiliation of their own in 2018-19.
Edge: Even The Bruins' goalies have had the better regular season numbers this season, but the Phantoms' goaltie duo has both recent NHL experience and past Stanley Cup playoff experience on their collective resume. Expect solid goaltending from both teams.
Key Matchups & Storylines
Phantoms' High-Octane Offense vs. Bruins' Stingy Defense
Only Charlotte (262 goals) scored more goals in 2017-18 than the Phantoms and their 260 goals. When the Phantoms sat out their goal scorers in their regular season finale, one could argue they'd have finished the year first in total goals for.
The Bruins, meanwhile, have allowed the second fewest goals against on the season among teams who played 76 games second only to Toronto (2.23 goals-against per game average).
Will the Phantoms' depth and ability to get offensive contributions from throughout their lineup be too much to handle, or are the Bruins a team built for postseason hockey with the way their style of play favors a more methodical, defense-first kind of feel?
Goalie Matchup?
For the Lehigh Valley Phantoms, Alex Lyon is expected to start the postseason as the team's starting goaltender. Lyon had spend considerable time in the NHL with the Flyers down the stretch, and Dustin Tokarski stood on his head with the Phantoms in Lyon's absence - finishing the season with five shutouts. Either goaltender is capable of shutting things down.
It'll be interesting to see who the Bruins rely on in net, as both Zane McIntyre and Jordan Binnington (loaned to Providence by St. Louis earlier this season) put together strong seasons as a dynamic duo in net. McIntyre's seven shutouts speak for themselves, but Binnington had better save percentage and goals-against average numbers while appearing to be the more consistent of the two.
Coaching
There's an interesting bond between Phantoms' head coach Scott Gordon and Bruins' first year head coach Jay Leach that Providence Journal reporter Mark Divver was able to dig in to, and interestingly enough it pertains to the one and only other time the Phantoms and Bruins met in the Calder Cup Playoffs. Leach was a defenseman on Gordon's Providence Bruins team that lost their playoff series to a Philadelphia Phantoms squad that would go on to win the Calder Cup that season with the likes of Mike Richards, Jeff Carter, Patrick Sharp and company leading the way on one of the more stacked minor league rosters in recent history.
It's definitely youth versus experience in this series behind the bench, but Leach has learned plenty about being in a winning environment from his time as an assistant with the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins.
The Bottom Line
All the intangibles - running into a hot goaltender, special teams execution, NHL reinforcements, etc. - will come into play throughout the series. The real question is whether or not one (or more) of these intangibles takes over the series and becomes the story.
Prediction
Four of the top seven teams in the American Hockey League (AHL) in the 2017-18 season called the Atlantic Division home. The regular season division title is all nice and fine, but the Phantoms will get the Bruins' best in a tricky best-of-five series that sees Providence host the first two games due to a scheduling conflict at the Dunkin Donuts Center. As long as history doesn't repeat itself for Lehigh Valley in terms of last year's slow start to the postseason, the Phantoms should be able to play their game and have success.
Phantoms in four games.
