Phantoms/Checkers 2018 Atlantic Division Finals Series Preview
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ALLENTOWN - After a grueling, physical "classic" style first round series with the Providence Bruins, the Lehigh Valley Phantoms enter the Atlantic Division Finals against the Charlotte Checkers needing to switch gears. And quickly.
While the Bruins played what head coach Scott Gordon called a "straight-line, out-safe you" style of play with the puck being played up the boards and into the offensive to set up a forecheck and one-on-one battles, the Charlotte Checkers play the game with speed, skill and a lot more offensive firepower - a style that Gordon said will cause the Phantoms to need to make better reads on the play given the situation rather than just be in specific areas knowing the play will go to a specific area more times than not.
While the second round is a best-of-seven series instead of a best-of-five like the first round, the margin for error continues to get smaller the further into the postseason it gets. Add in the fact that the Phantoms have the traditional home ice advantage this round and begin with two games at home followed by three straight games on the road, and getting off to a good start at home is almost a given for Lehigh Valley if they want to have a chance to advance to the Eastern Conference Finals. Even a split of the first two games negates the Phantoms' home ice advantage and could spell trouble giving a red-hot Charlotte team a chance to win the series on home ice.
The Phantoms went 4-4 in eight regular season meetings with the Checkers, but you can throw the regular season head-to-head stats right out the window. This Charlotte team improved drastically down the stretch with several additions from their NHL parent Carolina Hurricanes, including defenseman Hadyn Fleury - the 7th overall pick in 2014 - who played just one game in the AHL this season prior to being reassigned to AHL Charlotte after the Hurricanes' season ended in the NHL.
Here's a full breakdown of the two teams at each position, who has the edge and a prediction for the series!
Forwards
Lehigh Valley
The Phantoms' first line center, Phil Varone, won't be in the team's lineup for Game 1 Friday night - he's still recovering from an upper body injury sustained in Lehigh Valley's first round series last Friday in Game 3 against Providence. That being said, the return of Oskar Lindblom kind of washes that out, and Varone is still expected to play in this series - perhaps in time for Game 3 in Charlotte on Tuesday night.
Also promising is that Mikhail Vorobyev should be able to return to the lineup at some point in the series, as he was skating as a full participant this week in practice after spending all of the first round series against Providence in a yellow no-contact jersey. Those who were add practice Thursday seem to think he could be in the lineup for Game 1.
With Varone out, it almost goes without saying that the Martel-Vecchione-AubeKubel line needs to step up their game big time beginning with Friday's Game 1.
What will be interesting to keep an eye on is how the lines will look to start the series.
Projected Game 1 Lineup:
Danick Martel - Mike Vecchione - Nicolas Aube-Kubel Oskar Lindblom - Corban Knight - Chris Conner Alex Krushelnyski - Cole Bardreau - Colin McDonald Greg Carey - Mikhail Vorobyev - xxxxxxxxx
Options for 12th forward: Steven Swavely, Carsen Twarynski, Tyrell Goulbourne, Radel Fazleev, Pascal Laberge
Charlotte
The Skinny: Simply put, the strength of the Checkers' roster is their talent and depth at the forward position. Similar to Lehigh Valley, the Checkers also boast a highly skilled lineup that has four lines that can score goals in a hurry with a ton of offensive firepower. Playing the matchups won't be easy, as this forward unit creates mismatches no matter which line you focus on trying to shut down.
Projected Game 1 Lineup:
Valentin Zykov - Lucas Wallmark - Andrew Miller Aleksi Saarela - Greg McKegg - Andrew Poturalski Warren Foegele - Clark Bishop - Patrick Brown Janne Kuokkanen - Nicolas Roy - Julien Gauthier
Edge: Checkers For as talented and deep the Phantoms' forward core is - and it's one of the better ones in the entire American Hockey League - Charlotte has what head coach Scott Gordon calls "four first lines" and that poses matchup problems for Lehigh Valley. Also, Phil Varone at less than 100% and unavailable for Friday's Game 1 is definitely another concern.
Defensemen
Lehigh Valley
The Phantoms got a much-needed boost on the back end when Travis Sanheim was reassigned to Lehigh Valley following the end of the Philadelphia Flyers' postseason in the NHL. He played 34 out of the nearly 80 minutes of game action in last Saturday's overtime win. Both he and his defense partner Phil Myers will be relied upon heavily moving forward.
T.J. Brennan and Mark Friedman bring offense from the back end, but will also need to be reliable in their own end against a potent Checkers' attack. Max Lamarche, the overtime hero, and Reece Willcox play a straightforward defense-first style and will need to step up their game in hopes of slowing down Charlotte's forwards
And when will Sam Morin enter the series? He was ruled out for Friday's Game 1 but still is a possibility for Saturday's Game 2. How much of an impact can he make, having not played in game action since late January.
Projected Game 1 Lineup:
Travis Sanheim - Phil Myers T.J. Brennan - Mark Friedman Reece Willcox - Max Lamarche
Charlotte
The Skinny: The Checkers have balanced pairings on the blue line with plenty of puck movers that get the puck up ice in a hurry and support the forwards' offensive attack. It'll be interesting to see if Lehigh Valley's physical forwards and tenacious fore-check can get set up and prevent the Checkers' blue liners from having easy exits out of their defensive zone.
Projected Game 1 Lineup:
Trevor Carrick - Brenden Kichton Philip Samuelsson - Roland McKeown Haydn Fleury - Josiah Didier
Edge: Phantoms Travis Sanheim's return to Lehigh Valley, combined with Phil Myers' resurgance coming off injury and the potential for Sam Morin's return this series tips the scales in Lehigh Valley's favor despite the Phantoms having arguably the tougher job defensively.
Goaltending
Lehigh Valley
The Phantoms will need to continue to lean on their goaltender in the second round, especially considering the offensive flare their new opponent has.
Alex Lyon put on one of the better goaltending performances in Lehigh Valley Phantoms franchise history in the team's last game last Saturday night - bailing his team out big time and enabling them to close out Providence.
For the Phantoms to have a chance in this series, the goaltending will need to continue to be excellent.
Projected Game 1 Starter: Alex Lyon (Dustin Tokarski - backup)
Charlotte
The Skinny: Those more familiar with Alex Nedeljkovic told Inside AHL Hockey he 'tends to run hot and cold'. Will he play lights out and steal games, or need offensive support to have a chance to be successful?
Projected Game 1 Starter: Alex Nedeljkovic (Jeremy Smith - backup)
Edge: Phantoms No disrespect to Nedeljkovic and Smith, but Alex Lyon and Dustin Tokarski have the edge between the pipes heading into this second round series. It'll be the Phantoms' biggest test yet though.
Key Matchups and Storylines
Rest versus Rust
Both teams enter the series with lengthy layoffs between games. Charlotte's first round sweep of Wilkes-Barre/Scranton concluded eight days ago, while the Phantoms finished off Providence in four games with their first round series now six days behind them.
With how hot the Checkers have been down the stretch, combined with the Phantoms having a few injured players nearing returns, it'll be interesting to see how the time between games affects both teams in the early portion of the series. It appears the time off will be more of a benefit to Lehigh Valley as it stands now.
Charlotte's Defense vs. Lehigh Valley's Offense
A lot of the talk heading into the series from players, coaches and media alike is about how potent and deep the Checkers' forward core is, and the challenge they pose to the Phantoms. What will be more intriguing is if the Checkers can slow down the Phantoms' offensive game plan, and will it be a fight fire with fire approach by the home team with last change or will there be matchups the entire game. Will it be a track meet, or will these games be lower scoring like postseason games tend to be. (Though Toronto and Syracuse combined for 10 goals in their Game 1 Thursday night).
Prediction Time
The series could really go either way. Can the Checkers' offense be contained? Do the Phantoms need to play more like their first round opponent did against them, and try to grind out and wear down Charlotte's speedy, skilled and talented forwards? Will the Phantoms get healthier as the series carries on, and can those returning to action be effective?
Buckle up. The way these two teams have played to this point coming in, the pace and style untraditional to playoff hockey could make for an exciting series - perhaps even one for the ages.
Prediction: It's hard to envision this series not going the distance, and it's also hard to bet against the home team in a Game Seven. Phantoms in seven.
