Welcome Tom Dorsa - IAH's Texas Stars Reporter
CEDAR PARK - Noted: it's hard to project minor-league hockey rosters. AHL teams are accustomed to constant change and frequent roster overhauls. The Texas Stars, fresh off their recent run to the Calder Cup Finals, enter the 2018-19 season with a plethora of fresh faces in the locker room.
In addition to having a new defensive coach, Bob Jones, and a new division (moving from Pacific to Central), the Stars absorb the contracts of 14 new players from all over hockey. From free agency to college signings to prospects moving abroad, the Stars will have plenty of new skaters for fans to learn to recognize.
Luckily for the club that is celebrating its 10th anniversary this season, they have long had leadership from veterans like Travis Morin and Justin Dowling to supplement a roster that has seen the likes of Jamie Benn, John Klingberg, and Radek Faksa come up through the ranks.
It is imperative to mix seasoned professionals with top prospects, and the Stars have struck gold with AHL success under that blueprint. Head coach Derek Laxdal was rewarded with a contract extension last Spring, and has been given perhaps the most talented roster since the team's 2013-14 Calder Cup title.
The following is a roster projection that takes into account past line combinations, prospects whose development is of the most importance, logical positional lines, et cetera.
Familiar Faces
Travis Morin, Justin Dowling, Denis Gurianov, Samuel Laberge, Robbie Payne, Tony Calderone, Joel L'Esperance, Colin Markison, Remi Elie, Gavin Bayreuther, Dillon Heatherington, Shane Hanna, Reece Scarlett, and Landon Bow.
Led by veteran forwards Morin and Dowling, the Stars boast a solid and skilled returning cast of forwards. One of the team’s top prospects, Gurianov, will see top-six minutes at the AHL level after a good NHL preseason, while college free agents L'Esperance, Calderone, and Payne come back after cups of coffee last season.
Laberge and Markison will assume the same roles in 2018-19 as they filled quite effectively last season. The two depth forwards combined for 14 goals and 28 assists in the regular season, despite mostly playing bottom-six roles.
Well-regarded defensemen Gavin Bayreuther and Dillon Heatherington maintain crucial positions in the Texas lineup, while simultaneously searching for their shot at an NHL job.
Hanna and Scarlett were both midseason additions to the Texas lineup last year and each found ice time by virtue of their all-around reliability. Scarlett, especially, was impressive down the stretch and played top-four minutes as the Stars reached Game 7 of the Cup Finals.
After playing second fiddle last season to veteran Mike McKenna, who is now in Belleville with the Senators organization, Bow returns to the crease with a chance to lock down the starting job in a battle with college newcomer Colton Point. The 23-year-old posted a 20-15-5 record, .903 save percentage, and 2.86 goals against average in 2017-18.
Arrivals
Colton Hargrove, Brad McClure, Spencer Naas, Adam Mascherin, James Phelan, Michael Mersch, Erik Condra, Nicholas Caamano, Ondrej Vala, Chris Martenet, Nolan Gluchowski, Ben Gleason, John Nyberg, Joel Hanley, and Colton Point.
If you followed the AHL last season, you probably recognize veterans Mersch and Condra, as they each recorded over half a point-per-game in the AHL last season.
Out of the young guns, Mascherin is by far the most intriguing. Drafted for the second time as an overager by Dallas in the 2018 draft, the 20-year-old will begin his pro career with Texas after obscene offensive numbers with Kitchener (OHL) last season (40G, 46A in 67 games).
Caamano, after tremendous two-way OHL numbers over four years, is one of the more exciting forward prospects in the system. McClure, Naas, and Phelan look to draw into a loaded lineup as fresh-out-of-college free agents. And Hargrove, who is a Rockwall, Texas native, will be a solid addition to the team owned and operated by his hometown NHL organization.
Despite some key losses on the blueline from last season, the Stars pick up right where they left off as a mobile, two-way club with these additions.
Hanley, whose Tucson Roadrunners were discarded by the Stars in the 2018 postseason, joins the fray as the main veteran piece of an otherwise youthful defense. Nyberg, commonly regarded as a top-15 prospect in the Stars system, looks to solidify a permanent lineup spot after bouncing on and off the lineup sheet last postseason. Vala and Martenet, both on entry-level deals, are potential lineup anchors. Gleason, a free agent signing out of preseason, and Gluchowski, who joins the team from the NCAA, round out the group.
A top-ten finisher in Hobey Baker Award voting last season, Point at times carried the entire Colgate club on his back on his way to an absurd 1.74 GAA/.944 Sv% basic stat line. The upstart former fifth-rounder, one of a multitude of goaltenders with NHL ceilings in the system, will battle with Landon Bow for starter's minutes in the Stars' crease.
Departures
Curtis McKenzie, Sheldon Dries, Brian Flynn, Greg Rallo, Andrew Bodnarchuk, Matt Mangene, Brent Regner, Michael Paliotta, Andrew O’Brien, and Mike McKenna.
It's hard to replace Curtis McKenzie, who was signed by the Vegas Golden Knights this past July after captaining Texas to the Western Conference crown. McKenzie paced the club with 25 goals last season, earning a spot on the Pacific Division All-Star team.
Dries departs after scoring 10 goals in the postseason as an AHL-contracted forward, earning himself an ELC with Colorado. Rallo, a member of the original 2009-2010 Stars, retired and joined former Stars assistant Karl Taylor on the Milwaukee Admirals coaching staff. Flynn, who briefly led the Calder Cup Playoffs scoring, inked a two-way deal with St. Louis in July.
Much of the Stars' rock-solid defensive core from last season packed up and left over the offseason, as Dallas made room for the latest crop of defensive prospects on the AHL blue line.
Bodnarchuk and Regner each went overseas, as Bodnarchuk signed with a German league club and Regner moved to the Austrian league; in those transactions, Texas lost two of their top-four d-men from 2017-2018.
Mangene remained in the league, as opposed to Paliotta and O'Brien who are unsigned at this time. The versatile Mangene, who provided roster flexibility with the ability to play at the wing and on defense, signed with the Springfield Thunderbirds.
The backbone of the team all throughout the Calder Cup Playoffs, veteran goaltender McKenna was merely the odd man out in a goaltending system ripe with youth. Though he was dynamic for Texas last season, the Stars opted to go forward with Bow and Point in an effort to give the young guns some time in the net. McKenna signed with Belleville.
Projected NHL Lineup
This is where it gets tricky. Keep in mind, there are an abundance of players battling for fourth-line spots with the Dallas Stars, Texas' parent club, and therefore nothing is set in stone.
In order to project the Texas Stars lineup, we have to project the Dallas roster first.
Benn - Tyler Seguin - Alexander Radulov Mattias Janmark - Jason Spezza - Valeri Nichushkin Tyler Pitlick - Faksa - Blake Comeau Devin Shore - Roope Hintz - Brett Ritchie Jason Dickinson, Gemel Smith (Martin Hanzal, who is currently on IR)
Esa Lindell - Klingberg Miro Heiskanen - Julius Honka Marc Methot - Connor Carrick Roman Polak (Stephen Johns, will likely start season on IR)
Ben Bishop Anton Khudobin
The Stars have the option to carry 14 forwards, seven defensemen, and two goalies, as opposed to the 13 forwards and eight defensemen the organization has built its roster around in much of the recent era.
With that, Texas Stars staples like Dickinson, Hintz, and Smith can all stay up in Dallas without severe lineup implications down in the AHL. Dickinson and Smith, contractually, must pass through waivers if they were to be sent down, and recent history suggests that no waiver move will happen.
Without further ado, let's get to Texas.
First line: Morin - Dowling - Gurianov
This line is quite a way to lead a team. Travis Morin, the 2013-14 league MVP, returns for his tenth season with the Stars and in doing so, continues to assist mightily in prospect development efforts.
Denis Gurianov returns to the club after impressive training camp and preseason efforts. The Russian has good reason to keep working for an NHL spot. As a dash of extra inspiration, Gurianov was a frequent healthy scratch in the Western Conference Finals and Calder Cup Finals last season. That extra fire under him could help see an increase in production from the former first-round pick.
In the middle is fan favorite Justin Dowling. Dowling is a scorer's best friend, as the long-time Star has dazzled opposing defensemen with his playmaking capabilities over the past few seasons. Still on a two-way contract after a brief taste of the NHL two seasons ago, the center has a lot to play for and could rack up assists with Morin and Gurianov sandwiching him.
Second line: Condra - L’Esperance - Mersch
To reiterate an earlier point, Condra and Mersch bring some much-needed scoring help to a team that lost Dries and McKenzie's offensive outputs. The two veterans combined for 74 points last season with their respective teams, and will fill middle-six roles most likely with emerging prospect Joel L’Esperance.
It is entirely possible that the Stars will pair one or two of their top wing prospects, maybe Mascherin or Caamano, with the smart and responsible L’Esperance to start things out, but we could very likely see this second line later into the 2018-19 season if scoring dries up somewhere.
L’Esperance, who earned a spot in the postseason lineup last season, is a lofty power forward who can generate loads of opportunities down in the zone with his size and determination.
Third line: Mascherin - Phelan - Calderone
A trio of players with similar skill sets, the Stars' projected third line has the potential for sparks to fly. Both wingers have electric shots and can fire from anywhere, while James Phelan seems like he has the most pro-capable skill set of any of the new college free agent additions.
While none of these players have Grade A skating abilities, their combined creativity and offensive firepower should make for a superb third line. All three players are signed to NHL entry-level deals and are looking to impress those in the higher ranks of the organization this season.
Fourth line: Payne - Caamano - Elie
This is a middle-six line on most AHL teams but the Stars have so many capable forwards that this is their fourth line. Based on this alone, it should be a pretty fun year in Cedar Park.
Remi Elie rejoins Texas after a surprise move on Monday that saw Dallas keep center Roope Hintz over him. Elie will have to pass through waivers to join the AHL club, and if he gets claimed by another NHL team (EDIT: Elie was claimed off waivers by the Buffalo Sabres Tuesday at noon) expect one of the extra forwards to absorb his spot.
The Stars didn't keep Payne around after his amateur tryout last season for nothing; surely they have some confidence in the 25-year-old. Phelan has played middle-six center time in the preseason and looks more than ready to take on his role here, just with better competition around him.
Caamano joins the Stars after a successful OHL campaign with league champions Hamilton, exhibiting his tenacious and consistent two-way skills after a mid-season trade. He isn’t a center—far from it, actually— but the Stars have a shortage of centermen and Caamano has the two-way skills to transition to the spot easier than others.
Extras: Naas, McClure, Laberge, Hargrove, Markison
These are high-quality players, and they will eventually get some time on the ice. But this lineup is far too skilled and loaded, which has caused a logjam of capable players. Returning players Laberge and Markison are certain to grab lineup time, while Texas native Hargrove and his solid offensive numbers from last season (16G, 17A with Providence) provide a capable replacement should the Stars call on him.
Naas and McClure will probably see some time with the ECHL's Idaho Steelheads, with a chance to get back up in AHL action later on.
First defense pair: Heatherington - Scarlett
Two players acquired by Dallas via trade, Heatherington and Scarlett stayed with Dallas for an extended period of time during the preseason and showed the Stars a lot to build upon. The lefty-righty combination allows the duo to play seamlessly, while their compatible skill sets scream top-AHL pairing.
Heatherington anchored the top pair last season, while Scarlett became a top-four fixture after a mid-season trade from Springfield to Cedar Park. The two defensemen with similar roads to Texas look like a solid combo.
Second defense pair: Bayreuther - Hanley
A heavily-desired free agent coming out of college, Bayreuther had some growing pains in his first pro season. The smart and agile defender looked out of place and incompatible with some of his peers last year.
Enter Joel Hanley, a veteran of five AHL seasons and the perfect mentor for one of Dallas's more promising prospects. Hanley is equal parts creative and rock solid within his own zone, and can provide a stable force for Texas that will allow Bayreuther to be more ambitious and risky with his game. Ambitious and risky are two words you normally don't want to hear about a middle-pair defender, but for the overall growth of his game, Bayreuther needs to take those steps this year.
Third defense pair: Vala - Nyberg
It's a risk to put two young, inexperienced defenders together, but the respective games of Vala and Nyberg seem like a good match for one another. Vala is a big, physical defenseman who can skate well for someone his size (6'4", 215 lbs) while Nyberg is a smart and innovative puck-mover who can make things happen at-will.
Each player displayed those qualities last season. Vala was a rock on the blue line of the Everett Silvertips during their run to the WHL Finals last year, while Nyberg looked right at home in eight appearances for the Stars in last year's Cup run. Texas has too much youth on the blue line to not put two rookies together, and these two seem like the best match.
Extras: Hansson, Martenet, Gluchowski, Hanna, Gleason
Niklas Hansson was a healthy scratch all throughout the playoffs last season, indicating a lack of trust from the coaching staff. That doesn't mean his Stars tenure is likely over, but it seems likely he will spend a decent amount of time as a healthy scratch.
Gleason is the most intriguing out of these players. After a jaw-dropping showing in Traverse City, he earned a contract on the spot and will certainly get some time on the ice in Cedar Park, though not regularly.
Martenet and Hanna carry some potential after some success in the ECHL last year, but are likely to return to Idaho. And Gluchowski has been decent in Texas' preseason games, but hasn't won himself a spot on the defensive core yet.
Goaltending tandem: Bow/Point
After impressive numbers in his rookie season, Bow returns to the club and fights newcomer Point, one of the top prospects in the Dallas system, for the job as the starting goaltender. It seems as though they will more or less share time in the crease this season.
Extra: Desrosiers
Desrosiers has been a bit of a disappointment since being selected in the second-round of the 2013 draft, but the former QMJHL champ has a lot left in him. He impressed in his preseason time with Texas and could step in and succeed if any injuries to Bow or Point occur down the road. But Boise seems like home for him as of now.
If AHL hockey has taught anyone anything, it's that nothing is certain and there is close to no way to predict anything. All that can be said of the Texas Stars as we get closer to the puck dropping on another promising season is this: It will be a fun year for hockey in the Austin area.
